Recession's blessing

Recession's blessing
By The Economist print edition
From The Economist
Published: December 16, 2008

ON THE shelves of Chinese shops is the usual assortment of toys, clothing, appliances and cookware. But over the past month the quality of many of the goods on offer has improved. In part this is because scandals over toxic paint and poisoned milk have brought closer scrutiny from inspectors and hence less corner-cutting. But it is also partly because of falling demand for Chinese goods from America, Europe and the Middle East, which has given China's manufacturers and local government a big incentive to work around the country's formidable export-promotion policies and to sell at home.

Chinese manufacturers are well aware that they operate in one of the few large markets that is still showing a pulse. Retail sales in October were up by 22% compared with the same month in 2007—a slight drop from 23.2% in September, but an impressive figure nonetheless. That certainly exaggerates the country's economic vigour (growth in car sales, for example, is declining), but it would be a stretch to believe that China is in recession.

As domestic consumption booms, China's export-oriented manufacturers are under siege. Figures announced on December 10th showed that exports fell by a startling 2.2% in November, compared with a year earlier. Analysts had expected an increase of around 15%; it was the first fall in exports for seven years. The news followed a government survey, released on December 1st, that showed a precipitous decline in the fortunes of export manufacturers, confirming lots of anecdotal evidence. Every week brings fresh reports of factory closings, particularly in the industrial belt around the Pearl River delta in southern China. Unpaid workers have been staging violent protests. Diverting goods intended for export to the domestic market makes sense for factory owners, who want their firms to survive, and for local officials, who wish to maintain order.

There is, however, a problem. This scheme conflicts with government policy, which is to promote exports. China encourages the import of industrial commodities, such as oil, base metals and even quality fabrics and industrial machinery—provided goods made with them are sent abroad. Accordingly, a tax is imposed on imports, and is then mostly reimbursed when finished goods are exported. (Products brought into special zones devoted to manufacturing for markets abroad avoid the tax altogether.)

As a result of pressure from China's trading partners, these tax rebates on exports had been contracting. But in November a new stimulus plan was announced that increased the rebates on more than 3,000 items. Evidently China's officials hope the country can once again export its way to higher growth, despite the financial troubles in its main markets.

Given that demand is more robust at home than abroad, the market is pushing in the opposite direction to the government. But circumventing official policy is difficult. Along with the loss of the rebate, say manufacturers, comes an increase in attention from public authorities that most companies prefer to avoid. Some manufacturers therefore avoid the domestic market in China entirely; others run separate factories for domestic and foreign goods.

One solution is to route goods to the domestic market via Hong Kong, so that they qualify as exports, but this takes time and money and strikes many operators as a huge waste of both. China and Hong Kong are filled with small trading companies noted for their ability to handle these problems using one murky method or another. The sudden appearance of higher-quality goods suggests that officials are being less zealous than usual in enforcing the export rules, for fear of causing job losses.

Chinese consumers, for their part, must surely be pleased that they can buy better products at keen prices. A year ago, the boom was expected to be the means of breaking down the divide between China's domestic and export-led economies. But perhaps a bust is what was required.

中國製造優質商品 反擔心失業率攀升
作者：經濟學人 　
出處：Web Only 2008/12
相關關鍵字：經濟學人
摘要：
中國商店貨架上的品項和過去差不多，但最近一個月裡，許多商品的品質已改善。除了毒奶醜聞，使監管更加嚴格外，歐美等國對中國產品需求下滑，也讓中國的製造商和地方政府出現警訊，減少推廣出口，專注於國內市場。

中國為少數活躍的大型市場，10月零售相較去年同期成長達22%。此數字確實誇大中國市場的活力，若認為中國陷入衰退又太悲觀。國內消費高度成長的同時，出口製造商則面臨危機。11月出口七年來首度衰退，下滑了2.2%。工廠想生存，地方官員希望能維持社會穩定，因此把原本要出口的商品，轉送到國內市場非常合理。

不過，和中國政府鼓勵出口的政策有所衝突。中國政府向進口商課稅，大部分的稅則會在出口時退回。在貿易夥伴施壓下，退稅額度縮小，但在11月推出的刺激方案中，退稅額度再度上升，顯示中國仍然希望出口帶動成長。

國內需求比國外更有活力，使得市場走向與政策相反，但規避官方政策並不容易。製造商在損失退稅的同時，也引起了主管當局關切，因此有些廠商完全放棄國內市場，其它的則把製造國內和國外商品的工廠分開。

解決方式之一，是透過香港把商品送到國內市場。而中國和香港也有許多小型貿易商，有能力使用各種地下手段，處理轉送時花錢又耗時的問題。中國突然出現許多高品質商品，表示官方因為擔心失業上升，管制態度變得比過去消極。

能用便宜的價格買到更好的產品，至少會讓中國消費者感到非常高興。也許打破出口和國內市場之間的藩籬，並不是快速成長，而是衰退。（黃維德譯）